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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a firm approach concerning Ukraine. Following making warnings of "severe ramifications" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing peace negotiations, he ultimately enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly affected the Russian leader's capacity to support his aggression in Ukraine.

However, through his latest detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, which was developed by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or European input, Trump has clearly gone back to his pro-Putin approach.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's plan would effectively benefit Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democracy in peril. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal effectively compromise that same independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate experience, Trump continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, like ceding Putin a section of Ukraine's soil will appease the ruler. However, Putin's military campaign is not simply about dominating a destroyed area of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that Putin's increasing autocracy denies them.

Border Giveaways

While keeping in status the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would require the nation to surrender the entire Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding Russia with territory that its troops have been unable to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of fighting, this concession would leave Ukraine's military defenses severely undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that represent a key barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv if he later opt to resume the war.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a step that would make future conflict simpler for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the proposal imposes no equivalent limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's campaign to portray the nation's democratically elected administration as radicals, the plan declares: "Every radical belief system and practices must be rejected and prohibited." Apparently to emphasize this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no obligation that Putin risk his regime by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the proposal has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet given that the Russian leadership has violated similar agreements in the history – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a return of seized territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should the international community believe this commitment on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on western defense commitments. Although the initiative warns of a "strong coordinated defense action" in case Russia restart its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics include unclear to troubling. The plan would not only block Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from restoring his reduced troops, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

An additional parallel deal reportedly would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and sustained military assault" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. However unlike a powerful national defense – the nation's best defense against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Western powers, including the US administration, to react with force to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not