🔗 Share this article

Just two months ago when the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach admonished him over missing a through-ball. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or a cause of the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?

That’s a particularly tough proposition to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.

Per the data, twice all season have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.

His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

A reversion to average could be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward could start scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.