Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.