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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."